4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Turpin (0-T.Arnold) [97-A.Hutchinson].

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model