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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model