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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 15

Detroit Lions 37 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model