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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 25

Detroit Lions 17 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 26-J.Gibbs left end to DAL 23 for 2 yards (2-J.Lewis; 55-C.Lawson).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.26 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model