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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 22

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 39-J.Bates 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model