Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Detroit Lions 40

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET 49. 32-B.Branch to DAL 4 for 47 yards (83-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model