4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DET 38 for 19 yards (21-A.Robertson; 31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model