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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 31

Detroit Lions 47 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 2-H.Hooker sacked at DAL 40 for -9 yards (52-K.Henry).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.02 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model