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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 30

Detroit Lions 17 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model