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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

SEA
47.4%
NE
52.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
NE 24
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

SEA

Pharaoh Brown TE Out Foot
Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Knee
George Fant T Doubtful Knee
Kenneth Walker RB Doubtful Oblique
Tyrel Dodson LB Questionable Shoulder
Jerome Baker LB Questionable Hamstring

NE

Sidy Sow T Out Ankle
Layden Robinson G Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Ankle
Jamycal Hasty RB Questionable Knee
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 23
–
NE 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 TD NE (5:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 1-J.Polk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 02:57 TD SEA (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 11:08 FG NE (11:08) 13-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. SEA 7 – NE 10
  • Q2 05:52 TD SEA (5:52) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – NE 10
  • Q2 02:34 FG NE (2:34) 13-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. SEA 14 – NE 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – NE 13
  • Q4 12:46 TD NE (12:46) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 38-R.Stevenson. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 17 – NE 19
  • Q4 00:58 FG SEA (:58) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – NE 20
  • Q5 04:41 FG SEA (4:41) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – NE 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 15 yards (24-K.Wallace; 19-J.Bobo).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (11:08) 13-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 67%

    (8:02) 7-G.Smith right guard to NE 34 for 2 yards (33-A.Jennings).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:34) 13-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 33-D.Williams to SEA 49 for 23 yards (49-J.Cardona).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (10:26) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard to NE 24 for -1 yards (23-K.Dugger).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to NE 30, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 9 yards (24-K.Wallace).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 80%

    (3:59) 13-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (:58) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona. 33-D.Williams to SEA 24 for 15 yards (21-J.Hawkins, 53-C.Elliss).