Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New England Patriots 0

(10:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 40 for 15 yards (24-K.Wallace; 19-J.Bobo).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model