Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 67

New England Patriots 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(5:44) 17-B.Baringer punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model