Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New England Patriots 13

(4:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model