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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 30

New England Patriots 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 13-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Love), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.58 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model