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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 10

New England Patriots 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 13-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 10, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model