Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New England Patriots 13

(6:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to NE 30, Center-41-C.Stoll. 25-M.Jones to NE 39 for 9 yards (24-K.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.63 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model