Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 90

New England Patriots 13 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to SEA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 33-D.Williams to SEA 49 for 23 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.21 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model