4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP