DEN @ SEA — 4th & Data

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HC Sean Payton

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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald

Sunday 2024-09-08 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN

42.5%

SEA

57.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

SEA defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
DEN offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
SEA offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22

–

SEA 24

Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DEN

No players on the report.

SEA

Pharaoh Brown TE Out Foot

Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Knee

Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 20

–

SEA 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:40 FG DEN (12:40) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – SEA 0
Q1 02:46 FG SEA (2:46) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DEN 3 – SEA 3
Q2 11:28 SAF DEN (11:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (6-P.Locke). PENALTY on SEA-75-A.Bradford, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. DEN 5 – SEA 3
Q2 08:48 FG DEN (8:48) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 8 – SEA 3
Q2 06:04 TD SEA (6:04) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles up the middle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 8 – SEA 9
Q2 04:36 SAF DEN (4:36) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (99-Z.Allen, 0-J.Cooper). DEN 10 – SEA 9
Q2 00:07 FG DEN (:07) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 13 – SEA 9
Q3 10:51 TD SEA (10:51) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – SEA 15
Q3 04:12 FG SEA (4:12) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DEN 13 – SEA 19
Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 26-Z.Charbonnet for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-J.Cooper]. DEN 13 – SEA 25
Q4 02:17 TD DEN (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 94%

(12:40) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(11:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to DEN 24, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 35 for 11 yards (1-L.Shenault).
Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(9:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to SEA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 33 for 5 yards (13-M.Blair, 42-D.Thomas).
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 60

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 55%

(5:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to SEA 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

(2:46) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(10:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 33-D.Williams MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 10, RECOVERED by DEN-34-J.Skinner at SEA 9.
Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(8:48) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(4:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to SEA 1, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-34-J.Skinner.
Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

(1:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to DEN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 47 for 10 yards (13-M.Blair).
Q3 DEN 4th & 18 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(13:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to SEA 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(4:12) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(2:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP

p(convert) 72%

(13:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to SEA 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-43-K.Smith.
Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 70

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 56%

(8:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 3 yards (83-D.Young).
Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 56

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61%

(6:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-J.Reynolds to SEA 49 for 7 yards (2-R.Jenkins).
Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(4:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 46 for 18 yards (26-Z.Charbonnet).