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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 47

Denver Broncos 10 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to SEA 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model