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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model