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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 26 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to DEN 28, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 46 for 18 yards (26-Z.Charbonnet).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.10 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model