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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 60

Denver Broncos 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to SEA 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP