Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Denver Broncos 10

(:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to DEN 37, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 47 for 10 yards (13-M.Blair).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.27 EP
60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model