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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 56

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-J.Reynolds to SEA 49 for 7 yards (2-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model