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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 26 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 3 yards (83-D.Young).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP