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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 65

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model