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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 81

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to SEA 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model