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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2024-02-11 · 18:30 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SF
70.8%
KC
29.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • KC defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.274 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
KC 22
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 22

SF

No players on the report.

KC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 22 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 22
–
KC 25

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:53 FG SF (14:53) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 04:32 TD SF (4:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Jennings pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-T.McDuffie]. SF 9 – KC 0
  • Q2 00:23 FG KC (:23) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. SF 10 – KC 3
  • Q3 05:06 FG KC (5:06) 7-H.Butker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. SF 10 – KC 6
  • Q3 02:32 TD KC (2:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – KC 12
  • Q4 11:27 TD SF (11:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – KC 13
  • Q4 05:49 FG KC (5:49) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. SF 16 – KC 16
  • Q4 01:57 FG SF (1:57) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 19 – KC 16
  • Q4 00:06 FG KC (:06) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. SF 19 – KC 19
  • Q5 07:25 FG SF (7:25) 4-J.Moody 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 22 – KC 19
  • Q5 00:06 TD KC (:06) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 12-M.Hardman for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – KC 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to SF 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to KC 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 11 for 5 yards (84-C.Conley).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 62 yards to SF 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for no gain (2-J.Williams).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%

    (14:53) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:26) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 20. 17-R.James to KC 20 for no gain (89-C.Woerner; 9-B.Willis).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to SF 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (:23) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 48%

    (12:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to KC 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-84-C.Conley.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 36, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:10) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 14 for no gain (84-C.Conley).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 63%

    (5:06) 7-H.Butker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:11) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to KC 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 27 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:42) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to SF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 28-D.Luter MUFFS catch, touched at SF 19, RECOVERED by KC-35-Ja.Watson at SF 16.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (12:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at KC 11 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 72%

    (1:57) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.