Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(6:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to KC 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 11 for 5 yards (84-C.Conley).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.52 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model