Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(4:11) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 55 yards to KC 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-R.James to KC 27 for 7 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model