Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(4:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 62 yards to SF 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-R.McCloud to SF 17 for no gain (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model