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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model