4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 7-H.Butker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.03 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model