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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to KC 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-84-C.Conley.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model