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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model