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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:23) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model