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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(12:46) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at KC 11 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model