MIN @ DET — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin O'Connell

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HC Dan Campbell

Sunday 2024-01-07 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN

36.6%

DET

63.4%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DET offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
MIN offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
DET defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
QB edge to MIN: Jared Goff (DET) +0.109 vs Nick Mullens (MIN) +0.151 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Nick Mullens in place of Jaren Hall)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21

–

DET 26

Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

MIN

Mekhi Blackmon CB Out Shoulder

Theo Jackson S Out Toe

Byron Murphy CB Out Knee

Jalen Nailor WR Out Concussion

Brian O'Neill T Out Ankle

Jaquelin Roy DT Out Ankle

Christian Darrisaw T Questionable Illness

Ed Ingram G Questionable Shoulder

DET

Jameson Williams WR Out Ankle

Brock Wright TE Out Hip

James Houston LB Out Ankle

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Questionable Pectoral

Benito Jones DT Questionable Illness

Alim McNeill DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20

–

DET 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:10 TD DET (8:10) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 6
Q1 02:17 TD DET (2:17) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DET 13
Q2 09:24 FG MIN (9:24) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 3 – DET 13
Q2 00:02 FG MIN (:02) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 6 – DET 13
Q3 07:19 TD DET (7:19) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 19
Q3 00:26 TD MIN (:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – DET 20
Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DET 26
Q4 13:28 TD MIN (13:28) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. MIN 19 – DET 27
Q4 08:18 FG DET (8:18) 17-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 20 – DET 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(14:16) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.
Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(10:26) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to DET 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 42 yards (42-A.DePaola).
Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(6:17) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 16 yards (34-N.Muse; 40-I.Pace).
Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 48%

(3:22) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 44 for 1 yard (40-I.Pace).
Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 50

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 35%

(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens scrambles left end to DET 44 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone). PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DET 44.
Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 56%

(6:42) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to MIN 2, Center-43-J.McQuaide, downed by DET-30-K.Dorsey.
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(2:48) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to DET 5, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 18 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace, 59-N.Vigil).
Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(1:25) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to MIN 20, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 4-B.Powell to MIN 33 for 13 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on MIN-33-B.Asamoah, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

(:02) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 79%

(11:34) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 4-B.Powell to DET 29 for 2 yards (1-C.Sutton) [97-A.Hutchinson].
Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72% p(FG) 40%

(9:31) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 19-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at MIN 28 for 20 yards.
Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:23) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to DET 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 43 for 18 yards (40-I.Pace).
Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 38%

(3:47) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 38

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 65%

(:26) 12-N.Mullens pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

(8:18) 17-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(2:56) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on MIN-20-J.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.