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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to DET 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 48 for 42 yards (42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model