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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short right to 4-B.Powell to DET 29 for 2 yards (1-C.Sutton) [97-A.Hutchinson].

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model