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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 1-G.Joseph 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.80 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model