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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 45
Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(3:22) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to MIN 44 for 1 yard (40-I.Pace).
The Three Options
GO
+1.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.22 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK
-0.24 EP
- 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
