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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 58

Detroit Lions 30 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on MIN-20-J.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.54 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model