Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 20

(5:23) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to DET 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 43 for 18 yards (40-I.Pace).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.72 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model