4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to DET 5, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 18 for 13 yards (40-I.Pace, 59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model