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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens scrambles left end to DET 44 for 6 yards (34-A.Anzalone). PENALTY on DET-29-K.Vildor, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DET 44.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model