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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 48

Detroit Lions 13 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 19-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at MIN 28 for 20 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model