HOU @ IND — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans

Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

Saturday 2024-01-06 · 20:15 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU

41.5%

IND

58.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

HOU offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
IND defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
HOU defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20

–

IND 23

Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

HOU

Noah Brown WR Out Back

Jonathan Greenard DE Out Ankle

Robert Woods WR Questionable Hip

Will Anderson DE Questionable Ankle

Andrew Beck FB Questionable Calf

Maliek Collins DT Questionable Hip

Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Ankle

Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Groin

IND

Chris Lammons CB Questionable Ankle

Kenny Moore CB Questionable Back

Zack Moss RB Questionable Forearm

Braden Smith T Questionable Knee

Ryan Kelly C Questionable Ankle

Quenton Nelson G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 23

–

IND 19

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:19 FG IND (9:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 0 – IND 3
Q1 09:15 TD HOU (9:15) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. HOU 6 – IND 3
Q2 02:00 TD HOU (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 47-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – IND 3
Q2 00:40 FG IND (:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 14 – IND 6
Q3 10:06 TD IND (10:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – IND 12
Q3 03:44 FG HOU (3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 17 – IND 14
Q4 13:37 FG IND (13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. HOU 17 – IND 17
Q4 06:23 TD HOU (6:23) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 23 – IND 17
Q4 00:08 SAF IND (:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed). HOU 23 – IND 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

(9:19) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(7:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.
Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 52%

(3:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.
Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 35 for 15 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox; 83-K.Granson).
Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 45%

(15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to IND 1, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.
Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP

p(convert) 56%

(11:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to HOU 30 for 15 yards (50-S.Olubi).
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(7:58) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 81

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 63%

(6:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 43 for 12 yards (50-S.Olubi).
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 74%

(:40) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to IND 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 34 for 10 yards (35-J.Hansen).
Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(11:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 13 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).
Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(9:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to IND 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 20 for 9 yards (43-N.Hewitt).
Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 39

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 63%

(5:42) 7-M.Gay 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 33

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

(3:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

(13:37) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 31-T.Goodson.
Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 77 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 61%

(:08) (Punt formation) 11-C.Johnston right end pushed ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY (37-A.Speed).