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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to HOU 30 for 15 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.42 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP